SOFR Option Weekly Commentary 7/24/26
America's job market remained strong as Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expected @ 187K - the lowest number of weekly filings since 1969. The US & Iran war continued to escalate & push oil futures higher while raising the odds of a 25 bp hike at the FOMC's July 29th meeting next week to 35.8% (up from 12.8% last week).
The current odds of the Fed on Hold through the FOMC's Dec 9th meeting are 8.6% (down from 21.5% last week), while the odds of at least one 25 bp hike are now 91.4% (up from 78.5% last week). The 10Yr is currently trading @ 4.68%.
SOFR Option Vols were mixed this week (see attached spreadsheet).