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SOFR Option Weekly Commentary 11/28/25

This week's September Retail Sales report came in lower than expected, however, restaurant sales (a harbinger of consumer's job security feelings) rose 0.7%. Sales excluding autos came in @ 0.3% (in line with estimates). PPI came in @ 0.3% (in line with estimates) and excluding food & energy rose just 0.1% (below 0.2% estimates).

The odds of a 25 bp cut at the Fed's Dec 10th meeting has risen to 86.9%.

SOFR Option vols were lower across the board this week (see attached spd sheet).

SOFR OPTION PLAYERS to NOTE THIS WEEK:

sfrz5 9625 ^ paper paid 14.25 5kx

sfrz5 9625 put (tied 96.2575 d42) paper sold 10k @ 3

sfrz5 9618 put paper sold 10k @ 1.75

sfrz5 9625 9631 9637 c fly paper paid 2.25 to 2.5 10kx

sfrz5 9612 9625 cs paper paid 8.25 to 9 35kx

sfrz5 9631 9643 cs paper paid .75 25kx ref 96.2325

sfrz5 9612 9625 9637 c fly paper sold 8k @ 5 ref 96.2325

sfrz5 9631 9625 9612 brk p fly paper paid .75 15kx Ref 96.255

sfrz5 9618 9625 9637 c fly 2x3x1 (tied 96.265 d10) paper sold 15k @ 6

sfrz5 9625 9631 cs (cov 96.255 d34) paper paid 3.25 17Kx

sfrf6 9650 9643 9637 p tree paper sold 5k @ .5 -2 legs ref 9644

sfrf6 sfrg6 9618 9606 9593 p fly sprd paper sold 5k @ 0.25 (-sfrg6) ref 96.455

sfrf6 9643 0qg6 9700 ^ sprd paper sold 2k @ 17.25 -short

sfrf6 9650 9668 9675 9693 c condor paper paid 2.75 5kx ref 96.45

sfrh6 9625 9606 p 1x2 paper sold 5k @ 1.5 ref 96.455

sfrh6 9675 9700 cs paper paid 2.25 10kx ref 96.455

sfrm6 9643 9631 9625 9612 p condor paper paid 2.5 5kx ref 96.71

sfru6 9675 9700 cs vs 0qu6 9725 9750 cs sprd paper paid 3.5 5kx +sfru6

sfru6 sfrz6 9650 9750 strangle stupid paper paid 43.5 2kx

sfru6 9725 9750 cs (tied 96.89 d10) vs

2qu6 9725 9750 cs (tied 96.785 d10) paper sold 5k at .00 -2qu6

sfrz6 9662 9637 p 1x2 paper sold 4k @ .5 -2 legs

sfrz6 9650 9700 9750 c fly paper paid 12.5 10kx ref 96.965

sfrz6 9750 9800 c 1x2 paper paid .00 5kx +1 leg

0qz5 9650 put paper paid .25 40kx

0qz5 9712 9718 cs (tied 96.975 d10) paper paid 1 10kx

0qz5 9706 9737 cs vs 3qz5 9675 9700 cs sprd paper paid 2-2.5 5kx +3qz5

0qf6 9693 9725 cs (tied 97.06 d35) paper paid 13 15kx

0qf6 9693 9681 9662 9650 p condor paper sold 10k @ 4 ref 979.00

0qf6 9650 put (tied 96.97 d05) paper paid 1 10kx

2qz5 9693 9712 cs paper sold 15k @ 4.5-4.25 ref 96.91

0qu6 9700 ^ paper paid 61 2kx ref 96.99

2qf6 9700 call (tied 96.895 d38) paper paid 8 5kx

2qu6 9675 ^ paper paid 61 2kx ref 96.77

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