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SOFR Reports & Commentary

SOFR Option Weekly Commentary 11/7/25

Markets continue to be reliant on Non-Govt data. Economic activity in US Manufacturing contracted for the 8th consecutive month, however, activity in US Services grew significantly (including New Orders) according to ISM data this week. ADP's private sector payroll number rose by 42K in October marking the first increase in 3 months, but today's Michigan Sentiment number (50.3) was the lowest in 3 years. The odds of the FED cutting the FF Rate another 25bp on Dec 10th is roughly 70% at the time of this being sent.

Vols were higher this week in WHITES (SFRZ5 to U6) and the front 2 RED quarterlies (SFRZ6 to H7) - see attached spreadsheet.

SOFR OPTION PLAYERS to NOTE THIS WEEK:

sfrx5 9631 9625 9618 p tree (tied 96.245-96.25 d10) paper sold 10k @ 3.25

sfrx5 9631 9625 9618 9612 p condor paper sold 5k @ 3.5 ref 96.265

sfrz5 9637 9650 9656 brk c fly paper paid 1 10kx ref 96.26

sfrz5 9625 9618 9612 9606 p condor paper paid 1.25 15kx ref 96.255

sfrz5 9612 9606 ps paper paid 1.5 15kx ref 96.255

sfrz5 9618 9625 9631 9637 c condor paper paid 2 20kx ref 96.24

sfrz5 9618 9612 9593 p fly (tied 96.255 d05 call) paper paid .75 10kx

sfrz5 9637 9687 cs (tied 96.25 d16) paper paid 1.5 15kx

sfrz5 9618 9625 9631 c fly paper paid .5 5kx ref 96.255

sfrz5 9625 9631 9643 brk c fly paper paid .75 10kx ref 96.25

sfrz5 9618 9631 cs vs sfrh6 9643 9656 cs sprd paper paid 2.75 12kx +sfrz5

sfrf6 9625 9637 9650 9662 c condor paper paid 4 to 4.25 25kx ref 9643

sfrf6 9637 0qf6 967 ps paper paid 1.25 10kx +sfrf6

sfrf6 9593 9700 strangle paper sold 10k @ 2.25 ref 96.43

sfrf6/sfrh6 9637 9650 strangle sprd paper paid 4.5 to 4.75 10kx

sfrf6 9662 9675 c 4x5 paper paid 4.5 10kx ref 96.44

sfrh6 9643 sfru6 9681^ stupid paper paid 83 on 4k

sfrh6 9650 9637 9625 p tree paper paid 2 5kx ref 96.44

sfrh6 9650 9662 cs vs 9625 9612 ps paper paid .00 to .5 +cs 25kx

sfrh6 9637 9631 ps (tied 96.425-96.42 d08) paper sold 12k @ 3.25

sfrh6 9643 call paper paid 15 10kx ref 96.445

sfrm6 9662^ paper sold 2k @ 39.5 ref 96.64

sfrm6 9662^ paper paid 40.5 2500x ref 96.61

sfrm6 9643 9631 9625 brk p tree paper paid .25 7500x +1 leg ref 96.67

sfru6 0qu6 9662 ps paper sold 10k @ 3.5 -0qu6

sfru6 9750 call paper sold 8k @ 9.5 to 9 ref 96.815-96.785

sfru6 9650 9618 9600 brk p tree paper paid 4.5 5kx + 1 leg ref 96.85

sfrz6 9700 9750 cs (tied 96.92 d18) paper paid 13.5 10kx

sfrz6 9800 9900 cs paper paid 5.85 to 6 syn 15kx

0qx5 9693 put (tied 96.935 d52) paper paid 5 12kx

0qz5 9668 put 2x vs 9700 call 1x paper paid .5 4kx +c ref 96.88

0qf6 9700 9725 cs paper paid 5-6.5 20kx

0qf6 9712 9737 9743 9768 c condor(tied 96.905 d10) paper paid 3 10kx

0qgg6 9693 ^ paper paid 37 2kx ref 96.935

0qh6 9775 9800 9812 c fly paper paid .75 15kx

0qf6 9656 9725 squash (tied 96.865 d36) paper paid 1 10kx +c

0qh6 9668 9712 squash (tied 96.905 d62) paper paid 2 5kx +c

0qm6 9687 ^ paper sold 3k @ 51.5 to 51

0qu6 9867 ^ paper paid 62 2kx

2qz5 9687 ^ (tied 96.825 d15) paper sold 2k @ 22.5

2qgg6 9675 ^ paper sold 2k @ 35.5

2qh6 9750 9800 9850 c fly paper paid 1.5 10kx ref 96.785

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